AFCON 2025: Nigeria Placed Fifth in Opta’s Title Predictions

With the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations set to begin in Morocco on December 21, data analysts at Opta have released their predictions on the tournament favourites — and Nigeria are not among the top four.

According to Opta’s supercomputer forecast, tournament hosts Morocco are the leading contenders, with a 19.1% chance of winning the competition. The Atlas Lions, champions in 1976, head into the tournament on the back of an impressive 18-game winning streak and the advantage of home support.

Opta highlighted Morocco’s tactical discipline, attacking pace, and defensive stability as key strengths, pointing to players such as Brahim Díaz, Youssef En-Nesyri, and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou as central to their title push.

Egypt are ranked second with a 12.4% probability of lifting a record-extending eighth AFCON trophy. Despite not winning the tournament since 2010, the Pharaohs remain strong contenders, largely due to their experience and the influence of captain Mohamed Salah, who is still chasing his first AFCON title.

Close behind are Senegal, given a 12.3% chance. The Teranga Lions, champions in 2021, arrive with renewed confidence under coach Pape Thiaw and a squad powered by Sadio Mané, Ismaïla Sarr, and Iliman Ndiaye. Opta described them as one of the most balanced teams in the competition.

Algeria, winners in 2019 but early exit victims in the last two editions, are ranked fourth with a 12% chance of success.

Nigeria, three-time African champions and runners-up at the last AFCON, are placed fifth with a 7.3% probability of winning the tournament. While Opta praised the Super Eagles’ attacking firepower — led by Victor Osimhen — concerns were raised about defensive absences and the difficulty of their group under new coach Eric Chelle.

Outside the top five, Opta identified Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Mali, Cameroon, South Africa, and DR Congo as potential dark horses capable of mounting strong challenges.

AFCON 2025 runs until January 18, 2026, and promises another fiercely contested chapter in African football history.