Naira Weakens to ₦1,532.34/$ Despite CBN’s FX Interventions

The naira closed last week on a weaker note at ₦1,532.34/$ in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, representing a 0.14% decline compared to the previous week.

The local currency had briefly strengthened to a four-month high of ₦1,518.88/$ at the start of the week before slipping to ₦1,530.25/$ and later ₦1,533.11/$. It ended the week slightly firmer at ₦1,532.34/$.

Trading data revealed that the naira exchanged between ₦1,515/$ (its strongest) and ₦1,538/$ (its weakest) during the week. At the parallel market, it traded within the ₦1,535–₦1,544/$ band.

Market Analysts Weigh In

Analysts attributed the performance to persistent supply-demand gaps despite improved liquidity and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions.

Cowry Asset Management, in its weekly market review, noted that the naira gained marginally at the parallel market by 0.06% to ₦1,544/$ but closed weaker in the official window.
“This divergence reflects ongoing FX liquidity imbalances. However, higher oil output and rising crude prices should boost dollar inflows and strengthen reserves, providing near-term stability for the naira,” the report stated.

AIICO Capital also confirmed intermittent CBN dollar sales during the week, which helped limit volatility. “The naira dipped slightly by 13.6 basis points w/w to ₦1,532.34/$ at the official market. External reserves grew by $422 million to $37.85 billion from $37.43 billion in the previous week,” its report noted.

Oil Output and Outlook

Fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed crude oil production rose 3.6% to 1.51 million barrels per day in June 2025, meeting the OPEC quota for the first time in five months. Improved security and operational efficiency in oil-producing regions drove the increase.

Analysts believe better liquidity and positive oil earnings outlook will support the naira in the short term. However, attention now shifts to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, starting today, where decisions on benchmark rates could influence FX trends.

Opinions remain divided: while some analysts argue for a modest rate cut due to easing inflation and naira stability, others warn that premature easing could reverse recent gains, especially with lingering food supply concerns and global economic uncertainties.

Comercio Partners summed up the sentiment: “The real market direction will depend on the tone of the MPC communique.”