Power Output Stalls at 5,500MW as Bayelsa Gains Electricity Regulatory Autonomy

Nigeria’s electricity grid has continued to struggle to surpass 6,000 megawatts, with generation levels hovering around 5,500MW for several months. This development coincides with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) transfer of regulatory authority in Bayelsa State to the newly established Bayelsa Electricity Regulatory Agency (BYERA).

Despite the decentralisation drive granting more states autonomy over their electricity markets, actual power generation has shown little progress. Announcing the handover via its official social media platforms on Monday, NERC confirmed the transfer in line with the amended 1999 Constitution and the provisions of the Electricity Act 2023.

The commission stated:

“In compliance with the amended Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Electricity Act 2023 (Amended), NERC has issued an order transferring regulatory oversight of the electricity market in Bayelsa State from the Commission to the Bayelsa State Electricity Regulatory Agency.”

As part of the directive, NERC ordered the Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company (PHED) to establish a subsidiary—PHED SubCo—responsible for intrastate supply and distribution of electricity in Bayelsa. The incorporation is expected to be completed within 60 days from August 21, 2025. The new entity must also apply for and secure an operational licence from BYERA.

The full transfer of authority is scheduled to conclude by February 20, 2026. With this move, Bayelsa joins Lagos, Imo, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Enugu, Niger, Edo, Oyo, and Plateau as states with regulatory control over their electricity sectors. The new powers enable them to generate, transmit, distribute, and issue licences to investors within the power value chain.

However, despite these reforms, Nigeria’s generation capacity has remained stagnant. Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, had promised to raise output to 6,000MW by the end of 2024. Though the grid briefly peaked at 6,003MW in March 2025 following tariff adjustments for Band A customers, the milestone could not be sustained beyond a few days.

According to NERC’s July 2025 factsheet, Nigeria’s power plants recorded an average available capacity of 5,577MW out of an installed capacity of 13,625MW, translating to a 41 per cent plant availability factor—a five per cent drop from June. Average hourly generation stood at 4,340MWh, while the load factor dropped slightly to 78 per cent.

A closer look at plant performance showed that most facilities are operating below capacity. Egbin, with 1,320MW installed, managed just 717MW (54 per cent availability). Delta Power Plant delivered 482MW out of 900MW (54 per cent), and Kainji produced 360MW from 760MW (47 per cent).

Others fared worse: Odukpani (209MW of 625MW, 33 per cent), Zungeru (199MW of 650MW, 31 per cent), and Afam 2 (202MW of 625MW, 33 per cent). In contrast, some plants showed stronger performance, including Jebba (372MW out of 461MW, 77 per cent), Okpai 1 (471MW of 578MW, 81 per cent), and Ihovbor 2 (449MW of 461MW, 97 per cent).

Several plants contributed almost nothing to the grid. Alaoji 1, with a 500MW installed capacity, recorded zero availability, while Afam 1 delivered just 0.11MW out of 726MW. Sapele Steam (720MW) provided only 21MW (3 per cent), and Sapele 2 produced 92MW out of 500MW (18 per cent).

Grid stability indicators showed frequency levels between 49.42Hz and 50.64Hz, while voltage ranged from 301.10kV to 347.87kV—about 4 per cent below the acceptable lower threshold of 313.50kV.

Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) Managing Director, Jennifer Adighije, noted that before August 2024, plants such as Ihovbor, Alaoji, and Omotosho were operating at less than 5 per cent availability. She explained that targeted interventions, including recovery of idle turbines and strengthened gas supply agreements, had restored 625MW to the national grid. Alaoji Power Plant, she added, is set to resume operations soon.

Meanwhile, convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, stressed that while state-level autonomy is a welcome reform, its effects will not be immediate.

“Power supply remains a major challenge. State regulators will need time to build capacity. But at the same time, the national commission must strengthen policies that boost generation and energy uptake. Unfortunately, the lack of clear policy leadership at the federal level—particularly the near-invisibility of the National Integrated Electricity Policy—remains a serious concern,” Adegbemle said.